“Just try the insurance bet once—dealer’s showing an ace!” The guy next to me at the blackjack table was insistent. The bet paid 2:1, seemed like easy money when I had a good hand.
I’d learned this lesson before, but watching him lose that insurance bet reminded me why I have a strict “never bet” list. Some wagers look attractive on the surface but are mathematically designed to drain your bankroll faster than a broken dam.
Here are the bet types I refuse to place, no matter how good they look in the moment.
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Insurance Bets in Blackjack: The Sucker’s Safety Net
Insurance might be the most deceptive bet in any casino. When the dealer shows an ace, they offer you “insurance” against their blackjack for half your original bet. Pays 2:1 if the dealer has a blackjack.
Sounds reasonable until you do the math. In a single deck, there are 16 ten-value cards out of 52 total cards. That’s roughly a 30.8% chance the dealer has blackjack. For insurance to be profitable, you’d need at least a 33.3% chance (since it pays 2:1).
The house edge on insurance is about 7.5%—terrible compared to basic blackjack strategy’s 0.5% house edge. You’re essentially making a side bet that’s 15 times worse than the main game.
I stopped taking insurance after tracking it for two weeks. Took the bet 23 times, won 7 times. Lost $180 on a bet that was supposed to “protect” my hands.
Why it’s tempting: Insurance feels like protecting a good hand, but you’re actually making a separate, terrible bet that has nothing to do with your cards.
Tie Bets in Baccarat: The 14% Disaster
Baccarat’s tie bet pays 8:1 or 9:1, depending on the casino. Sounds incredible until you realize ties happen less than 10% of the time, giving the house an edge of around 14%.
For perspective, that’s worse than most slot machines. You’re better off playing penny slots than making tie bets in baccarat.
I got seduced by tie bets during a lucky streak where I hit three ties in 20 hands. Thought I’d found some kind of pattern. The next 100 hands had four ties total. Lost $400 chasing that 8:1 payout.
The math is clear: ties occur about 9.6% of the time, but you need them to happen 11.1% of the time to break even on 8:1 payouts. That gap might seem small, but it’s huge in gambling terms.
Parlay Bets in Sports Betting: The Dream Crusher
Parlays let you combine multiple bets for higher payouts, but all selections must win for you to collect anything. Miss one leg? Lose everything.
A three-team parlay might pay 6:1, but your actual odds of hitting all three bets are much worse than 6:1. Each individual bet has juice (usually -110), so combining them multiplies the house edge.
I spent six months trying to hit “easy” two-team parlays. My logic: pick two obvious favorites, collect the higher payout. Out of 50 parlays, I hit 12. Even when I won, the payouts barely covered my losses from the misses.
The psychological trap is that parlays turn probable wins into long shots. You might correctly pick winners 60% of the time on individual bets, but two 60% bets combined only win 36% of the time.
Side Bets in Any Game: The Distraction Trap
Blackjack side bets like “21+3” or “Perfect Pairs,” poker side bets, even slot bonus features you can buy—they all have one thing in common: much worse odds than the main game.
These bets exist because they’re profitable for casinos, not players. They add excitement and complexity while quietly draining your bankroll faster than the base game ever could.
My rule: if there’s a side bet available, the main game probably offers better value. Focus on playing the primary game well instead of chasing flashy side action.
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Why I Stick to This List
Every bet on my “never” list appeals to emotions rather than logic. They promise big payouts, feel exciting, or seem like smart hedges against losses.
But gambling is math, not emotions. The most exciting bets are usually the worst ones. I’d rather make boring, low-edge bets and keep my money longer than chase thrills with terrible odds.
When something looks too good to be true at a casino, it always is.
